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Introduction
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Introduction
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Pundits
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pundits
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’
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common norms and intuitions entangles potential competitors because of the spread of investments and labor mobility, decreasing nationalistic tendencies. This argument focuses on the “political will” of leaders to supply integration. However, we believe that desiring integration, for whatever reason, and having the appropriate conditions for integration to develop are not the same thing. In other words, political will is necessary, but not a sufficient condition. Another motivation is strategic in nature: by creating a larger community, it is far easier to defend the opportunities since the number of external competitors are reduced. Smaller units cannot be “picked off” without mobilizing the whole and, therefore, only the largest competitors can pose a threat. Again, this is a political motivation that can rationalize the need for integration, but does not offer us a theory as to how integration will occur.
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The book first examines how our arguments fit into the wider discourse on regional integration and then continues by explaining our set of generalized hypotheses, reviewing the existential crises facing the EU, and demonstrating the empirical evidence of our claims. We end by using our evidence-based theory to forecast the future of the EU. Chapter 2 begins by outlining previous thoughts regarding European integration, including some of the most often cited claims: economic rationality,
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neofunctionalism
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, and
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neorealism
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. We will see that the economic explanation gives us sound reasons why European should integrate, but does not tell us why or how sovereign states would integrate.
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Neofunctionalism
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offers some understanding of how states can be integrated, but the central mechanism lacks predictive power.
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Neorealism
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does attempt to use structural conditions to explain why states integrate. However, many of the assumptions contradict the explanations it offers and we view its predictive power as less than optimal.
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The remainder of Chapter 2 explains, through a power transition prospective, that integration requires a member state to act as a capable leader. Such a state will need to draw from its own economic strength to coordinate other states to form institutions, decision-making procedures, and policies that drive integration forward. However, we believe that the structure of asymmetric power is not enough. Member states need to be satisfied with how things are progressing. We posit that satisfaction has two important ingredients. The first is value convergence. Member states need to have social and political values similar to those of the regional leader. Since the character of integration will be driven by the regional leader’s values, then others would need to agree with those values. If values diverge, then member states will not agree on the leader’s vision. The second component is trust. We will argue that member states need to believe that the process of integration is working for them, i.e., that outcomes are non-zero sum. Such a belief will
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instill
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trust and thereby smooth the way for functioning relationships between member states on one side, and citizens and European institutions on the other.
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Chapter 3 details the major challenges facing the EU that will test its ability to continue. One is the ongoing fiscal problems among a subset of
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Eurozone
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member states due to the financial crisis, which began in 2007.
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